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 • Modèle CFS - Coupled Forecast System

Tendances saisonnières du CFS (Coupled Forecast System)
pour Février 2020

Février 2020 - Mars 2020 - Avril 2020 - Mai 2020 - Juin 2020 - Juillet 2020


Anomalie de la température à 2m

Date du runParisMarseilleBordeauxBrestLilleLyonStrasbourg
24/01/2020 00Z+2.5 °C+1.5 °C+2 °C+2.1 °C+2.9 °C+1 °C+3.4 °C
23/01/2020 18Z+2.4 °C+2.1 °C+2.3 °C+1.6 °C+2.7 °C+1.7 °C+3.4 °C
23/01/2020 12Z+3 °C+2.6 °C+2.9 °C+2.1 °C+3.5 °C+2.6 °C+4.2 °C
23/01/2020 06Z+2.1 °C+1.8 °C+2.4 °C+2 °C+2.7 °C+1.5 °C+3.2 °C
23/01/2020 00Z+2 °C+1.7 °C+2.7 °C+1.5 °C+2.4 °C+1.3 °C+3.1 °C
22/01/2020 18Z+3.8 °C+2.1 °C+3.3 °C+2.5 °C+4 °C+2.8 °C+4.4 °C
22/01/2020 12Z+4 °C+2.7 °C+3.9 °C+2.7 °C+4.4 °C+3.3 °C+5.3 °C
22/01/2020 06Z+3.2 °C+1.2 °C+3.1 °C+2.7 °C+4.1 °C+1.6 °C+3.6 °C
22/01/2020 00Z+3.6 °C+2.1 °C+2.8 °C+2.6 °C+4 °C+1.5 °C+3.4 °C
21/01/2020 18Z+4 °C+2.6 °C+3.8 °C+2.5 °C+4.3 °C+3 °C+5.4 °C
21/01/2020 12Z+1.4 °C+0.8 °C+1.2 °C+1.1 °C+1.9 °C-0.2 °C+2.4 °C
21/01/2020 06Z+3.5 °C+2.3 °C+3.2 °C+2.3 °C+4.2 °C+2.6 °C+4.8 °C
21/01/2020 00Z+1 °C+-0 °C+0.7 °C+2.1 °C+1.5 °C-1.8 °C+0.4 °C
20/01/2020 18Z+1.5 °C+1.1 °C+1 °C+0.9 °C+1.7 °C+0.3 °C+2.5 °C
20/01/2020 12Z+1 °C+0.7 °C+0.4 °C+1.4 °C+1.9 °C-1.1 °C+0.8 °C
20/01/2020 06Z+3.3 °C+2.1 °C+2.3 °C+2.4 °C+4.2 °C+1.8 °C+4.4 °C
20/01/2020 00Z+3.2 °C+2.4 °C+3 °C+2 °C+3.5 °C+2.5 °C+4.1 °C
19/01/2020 18Z+2.9 °C+2.5 °C+2.8 °C+2.3 °C+3.4 °C+2.2 °C+4.1 °C
19/01/2020 12Z+1.7 °C+1.6 °C+1.9 °C+1.9 °C+2.7 °C+0.6 °C+1.8 °C
19/01/2020 06Z+1.3 °C+0.7 °C-0.4 °C+1.3 °C+2.5 °C-1.4 °C+0.9 °C
19/01/2020 00Z+2.4 °C+2.2 °C+2.8 °C+2.1 °C+2.3 °C+1.7 °C+2.5 °C
18/01/2020 18Z+2 °C+0.7 °C+1.3 °C+1.9 °C+2.8 °C-0.7 °C+1.9 °C
18/01/2020 12Z+3.8 °C+1.9 °C+3.6 °C+2.7 °C+3.9 °C+1.9 °C+4.1 °C
18/01/2020 06Z+0.8 °C+0.5 °C+0.3 °C+0.4 °C+1.4 °C-0.4 °C+1.9 °C
18/01/2020 00Z+1.6 °C+1 °C+0.9 °C+1.4 °C+2.4 °C+0.2 °C+2.1 °C
17/01/2020 18Z+2.3 °C+1.4 °C+1.9 °C+1.6 °C+2.7 °C+0.4 °C+2.6 °C
17/01/2020 12Z+2.4 °C+1.4 °C+2.2 °C+1.8 °C+2.4 °C+1 °C+3.1 °C
17/01/2020 06Z+2.3 °C+0.9 °C+1.8 °C+2.1 °C+3.2 °C+0.5 °C+2.7 °C
17/01/2020 00Z+3.5 °C+2.5 °C+3.4 °C+2.3 °C+4 °C+2.8 °C+5 °C
16/01/2020 18Z-2.5 °C-1.3 °C-2.1 °C-1.1 °C-1.3 °C-3.6 °C-2.2 °C
Moyenne+2.3 °C+1.5 °C+2 °C+1.8 °C+2.9 °C+1 °C+3 °C

Anomalie de la température à 850hPa

Date du runParisMarseilleBordeauxBrestLilleLyonStrasbourg
24/01/2020 00Z+0.5 °C+1 °C+0.2 °C+0.2 °C+0.5 °C+0.7 °C+1.1 °C
23/01/2020 18Z-0.3 °C+1.4 °C+0.2 °C-1.2 °C-0.2 °C+0.7 °C+0.5 °C
23/01/2020 12Z+2 °C+3.5 °C+3 °C+1.2 °C+1.7 °C+3.2 °C+2.9 °C
23/01/2020 06Z+1.3 °C+2.3 °C+1.8 °C+0.5 °C+1 °C+1.9 °C+1.5 °C
23/01/2020 00Z+0.7 °C+0.5 °C+1.4 °C-0.2 °C+0.7 °C+1 °C+1 °C
22/01/2020 18Z+2.9 °C+1.6 °C+2.9 °C+1.5 °C+3.1 °C+2.8 °C+3.8 °C
22/01/2020 12Z+3.8 °C+2.8 °C+3.9 °C+2.8 °C+3.9 °C+3.9 °C+4.6 °C
22/01/2020 06Z+2.7 °C+0.3 °C+2.3 °C+1.7 °C+3 °C+1.9 °C+3.2 °C
22/01/2020 00Z+2.4 °C+2.8 °C+3.5 °C+3.8 °C+1.9 °C+1.4 °C+1 °C
21/01/2020 18Z+4.6 °C+3.4 °C+4.4 °C+3.1 °C+4.4 °C+4.4 °C+4.9 °C
21/01/2020 12Z+0.1 °C-0.9 °C-0.5 °C+0 °C+0.5 °C-0.5 °C+0.2 °C
21/01/2020 06Z+3 °C+2.2 °C+2.9 °C+2 °C+3 °C+3 °C+3.6 °C
21/01/2020 00Z+-0 °C-0.8 °C+0.4 °C+1.5 °C+0.1 °C-1.6 °C-1.8 °C
20/01/2020 18Z+0.9 °C+0.5 °C+0.5 °C+0.1 °C+1.1 °C+0.8 °C+1.2 °C
20/01/2020 12Z+0.8 °C+0.1 °C+0.7 °C+1.2 °C+0.7 °C+0.2 °C+0.5 °C
20/01/2020 06Z+1.4 °C+2.7 °C+2 °C+1.1 °C+1.3 °C+1.9 °C+2.3 °C
20/01/2020 00Z+3 °C+2.2 °C+3.4 °C+3.2 °C+2.8 °C+2.2 °C+2.4 °C
19/01/2020 18Z+2.8 °C+3.1 °C+3 °C+2.3 °C+2.3 °C+3 °C+3 °C
19/01/2020 12Z+4.1 °C+2.6 °C+4.2 °C+4.9 °C+4.2 °C+3.1 °C+2.8 °C
19/01/2020 06Z+2.8 °C+0.8 °C+2.1 °C+3.9 °C+3.1 °C+0.9 °C+1.3 °C
19/01/2020 00Z+2.8 °C+2.6 °C+3.9 °C+3.3 °C+2.3 °C+2.5 °C+1.9 °C
18/01/2020 18Z-0.2 °C+0.6 °C-0.2 °C+0.4 °C-0.4 °C-0.6 °C-0.5 °C
18/01/2020 12Z+2.8 °C+2.3 °C+2.7 °C+2.7 °C+2.8 °C+2.2 °C+2.7 °C
18/01/2020 06Z-0.3 °C-1.5 °C-0.8 °C-1.2 °C+0.1 °C-0.6 °C+0.6 °C
18/01/2020 00Z+0.7 °C+0 °C-0.4 °C-0.2 °C+1 °C+0 °C+0.6 °C
17/01/2020 18Z+0.5 °C+0.6 °C+0.7 °C+0.3 °C+0.6 °C+0.6 °C+1.1 °C
17/01/2020 12Z+1.1 °C+-0 °C+0.5 °C-0.2 °C+1.2 °C+0.7 °C+1.9 °C
17/01/2020 06Z+2 °C+0.4 °C+1.5 °C+2 °C+2.1 °C+1.2 °C+1.5 °C
17/01/2020 00Z+3 °C+2 °C+2.5 °C+2 °C+3.1 °C+3 °C+3.6 °C
16/01/2020 18Z-0.7 °C-3.8 °C-1.4 °C-0.2 °C-0.6 °C-2.6 °C-2.6 °C
Moyenne+1.7 °C+1.2 °C+1.7 °C+1.4 °C+1.7 °C+1.4 °C+1.7 °C

Anomalie de quantité de précipitations

Date du runParisMarseilleBordeauxBrestLilleLyonStrasbourg
24/01/2020 00Z+111.9 %-58 %+119.2 %+50.5 %+90 %+109.2 %+57.4 %
23/01/2020 18Z+162.6 %-38 %+202.4 %+122.7 %+217.5 %+225.2 %+106.7 %
23/01/2020 12Z+24.6 %-69 %-9.5 %+29.1 %+14 %+41.8 %+18.4 %
23/01/2020 06Z+33 %-62.7 %+14.8 %+16.3 %+52.9 %+30.5 %-1.7 %
23/01/2020 00Z+88.9 %-86.2 %+36 %+62 %+95.3 %+57.6 %+36.8 %
22/01/2020 18Z+15.2 %+71.9 %+2.7 %-9 %-11.6 %+9.9 %-19.2 %
22/01/2020 12Z+0.2 %+14.3 %-19.5 %+74.5 %+33.8 %-6 %-20.5 %
22/01/2020 06Z+28.7 %-40.9 %+10.9 %+12.7 %+51.1 %-3.5 %-35.4 %
22/01/2020 00Z-0.5 %-98.5 %-60.7 %-71.9 %+21 %-11.1 %+41.1 %
21/01/2020 18Z+43.8 %-60.7 %-8.2 %-15.3 %+76.6 %+26.2 %-29.7 %
21/01/2020 12Z+31.8 %-2.7 %+13.5 %+23.8 %+45.9 %+117.4 %+28.7 %
21/01/2020 06Z+29 %+17.8 %+69.7 %+14.4 %+14.2 %+26.3 %+9.2 %
21/01/2020 00Z-29.3 %-91.9 %-48.6 %-52.4 %-12.7 %-9.1 %+3.5 %
20/01/2020 18Z+82.3 %+31.1 %+30.4 %-11.6 %+98.5 %+58.5 %+26.9 %
20/01/2020 12Z-45.9 %-16.9 %-26.8 %-27.6 %-60.7 %+3.2 %-30.2 %
20/01/2020 06Z+15.7 %-36 %-43.1 %-26.3 %+57.8 %+15.7 %+17.7 %
20/01/2020 00Z-11.3 %-86.3 %-75.8 %-61.9 %+1.1 %-3.9 %+26 %
19/01/2020 18Z+149.2 %-68.4 %+30.1 %+66 %+99 %+98.5 %+104.9 %
19/01/2020 12Z-51 %-99.7 %-48.7 %-71.7 %-47.5 %-57.4 %-64.2 %
19/01/2020 06Z-82.1 %-99.3 %-93.8 %-91.3 %-74.1 %-62.6 %-43.3 %
19/01/2020 00Z+22.7 %-88.9 %-82.6 %-59.1 %-7.2 %-50.2 %+18.2 %
18/01/2020 18Z+120.3 %-94.1 %-25.6 %-17.5 %+108.2 %+111.6 %+118.4 %
18/01/2020 12Z+90.9 %+12.5 %+16.9 %-29.5 %+94.5 %+38.9 %+54.6 %
18/01/2020 06Z-10.2 %+81.1 %+25.1 %-11.9 %-60.7 %+34.9 %-22.8 %
18/01/2020 00Z+92.7 %-49.5 %+91.7 %+63.9 %+71.2 %+82.5 %+7.9 %
17/01/2020 18Z+102.2 %+1.7 %+125.7 %+26.4 %+54.5 %+121.8 %+60 %
17/01/2020 12Z+47.2 %+25.8 %+48.3 %+34.8 %+0.8 %+88.6 %-9.3 %
17/01/2020 06Z-31.5 %-77.2 %-36.4 %-31.2 %-9.4 %-37.1 %-43.1 %
17/01/2020 00Z-1.7 %-9.9 %-26 %+40.3 %+4.4 %+12.9 %-47 %
16/01/2020 18Z-77.7 %-91.4 %-94.8 %-92.2 %-73.3 %-93.8 %-88.6 %
Moyenne+31.7 %-39 %+4.6 %-1.4 %+31.5 %+32.6 %+9.4 %

Anomalie de pression

Date du runParisMarseilleBordeauxBrestLilleLyonStrasbourg
24/01/2020 00Z-4 hPa+0.3 hPa+0.8 hPa-3.7 hPa-6.6 hPa-0.4 hPa-3.5 hPa
23/01/2020 18Z-9.9 hPa-1.5 hPa-3.5 hPa-10.3 hPa-13.7 hPa-4 hPa-8.5 hPa
23/01/2020 12Z-1.7 hPa+2.1 hPa-0.3 hPa-3.6 hPa-2.9 hPa+0.6 hPa-0.4 hPa
23/01/2020 06Z-1 hPa+2.7 hPa+2 hPa-1.8 hPa-3 hPa+2 hPa-0.1 hPa
23/01/2020 00Z-2.6 hPa+2.5 hPa-0.1 hPa-3.6 hPa-4.3 hPa+0.8 hPa-1.4 hPa
22/01/2020 18Z-4.6 hPa-0.2 hPa-5 hPa-7.4 hPa-4.7 hPa-2.3 hPa-2.8 hPa
22/01/2020 12Z-5.2 hPa+0.1 hPa-4.7 hPa-9.4 hPa-6 hPa-2 hPa-2.7 hPa
22/01/2020 06Z+1.3 hPa+5.9 hPa+2.1 hPa-1.4 hPa+0.4 hPa+4.4 hPa+3.3 hPa
22/01/2020 00Z+7.9 hPa+7 hPa+9.6 hPa+10.1 hPa+6.7 hPa+8.4 hPa+6.7 hPa
21/01/2020 18Z+1.2 hPa+5.5 hPa+1.6 hPa-0.1 hPa+0.2 hPa+3.8 hPa+2.5 hPa
21/01/2020 12Z-1.8 hPa+0.2 hPa-0.2 hPa-2 hPa-2.8 hPa-0.3 hPa-1.7 hPa
21/01/2020 06Z-4 hPa+1 hPa-2.5 hPa-4.9 hPa-5.4 hPa-1 hPa-2.7 hPa
21/01/2020 00Z+4.7 hPa+2.6 hPa+5.3 hPa+6.3 hPa+4.1 hPa+4.3 hPa+3.5 hPa
20/01/2020 18Z-3.9 hPa-2 hPa-2.5 hPa-4 hPa-4.6 hPa-2.4 hPa-3.6 hPa
20/01/2020 12Z+2.9 hPa+1.2 hPa+2.2 hPa+2.2 hPa+3.2 hPa+2.3 hPa+3 hPa
20/01/2020 06Z+0.6 hPa+2.9 hPa+2.9 hPa+0.2 hPa-1 hPa+2.8 hPa+0.8 hPa
20/01/2020 00Z+7.6 hPa+7.4 hPa+8.2 hPa+8.6 hPa+6.7 hPa+7.7 hPa+6.8 hPa
19/01/2020 18Z+1.1 hPa+3.7 hPa+3.8 hPa+1.3 hPa-0.5 hPa+3.2 hPa+0.9 hPa
19/01/2020 12Z+9.7 hPa+8 hPa+8.4 hPa+9.6 hPa+9.4 hPa+8.9 hPa+9.4 hPa
19/01/2020 06Z+12.7 hPa+8.6 hPa+11 hPa+14 hPa+12.7 hPa+10.7 hPa+11.3 hPa
19/01/2020 00Z+10.9 hPa+10.6 hPa+10.1 hPa+11 hPa+10.8 hPa+10.8 hPa+10.6 hPa
18/01/2020 18Z+2.2 hPa+4.3 hPa+8.2 hPa+5.4 hPa-0.8 hPa+5.3 hPa+1.1 hPa
18/01/2020 12Z-4.8 hPa-0.8 hPa-1.8 hPa-4.8 hPa-6.4 hPa-1.5 hPa-4.2 hPa
18/01/2020 06Z-4.6 hPa-3.9 hPa-5.9 hPa-6.4 hPa-3.5 hPa-4.5 hPa-3.7 hPa
18/01/2020 00Z-3.7 hPa+0.3 hPa-0.3 hPa-4.1 hPa-4.9 hPa-0.8 hPa-2.2 hPa
17/01/2020 18Z-7.7 hPa-4.5 hPa-4.9 hPa-7.9 hPa-8.5 hPa-5.2 hPa-7 hPa
17/01/2020 12Z-2.6 hPa-0.2 hPa-2.4 hPa-4.6 hPa-2.4 hPa-1.1 hPa-1.4 hPa
17/01/2020 06Z+6.2 hPa+7.4 hPa+6.9 hPa+5.8 hPa+5.4 hPa+7.3 hPa+6.7 hPa
17/01/2020 00Z+4.2 hPa+7.2 hPa+4.2 hPa+1.8 hPa+3.7 hPa+6 hPa+5.8 hPa
16/01/2020 18Z+13.5 hPa+8.2 hPa+7.8 hPa+13 hPa+15.6 hPa+9.5 hPa+13.1 hPa
Moyenne+0.8 hPa+2.9 hPa+2 hPa+0.3 hPa-0.1 hPa+2.4 hPa+1.3 hPa

Cartes d'anomalie pour le dernier run de CFS

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Précisions
Les calculs d'anomalies sont réalisés à partir des données de la période 1982-2010. Le modèle Coupled Forecast System (CFSv2) est donc un modèle saisonnier qui est lancé une 4 tous les jours avec les données de réanalyse du NCEP. Les runs ont environ 1 jour de retard puisque le temps de calcul du modèle est très long.

 
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