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 • Modèle CFS - Coupled Forecast System

Tendances saisonnières du CFS (Coupled Forecast System)
pour Octobre 2018

Octobre 2018 - Novembre 2018 - Décembre 2018 - Janvier 2019 - Février 2019 - Mars 2019


Anomalie de la température à 2m

Date du runParisMarseilleBordeauxBrestLilleLyonStrasbourg
20/09/2018 06Z-2 °C-1.1 °C-1.4 °C-1.7 °C-1.5 °C-2.6 °C-0.5 °C
20/09/2018 00Z-2.1 °C-2.4 °C-1.7 °C-0.7 °C-1.3 °C-4.3 °C-2.1 °C
19/09/2018 18Z-2.7 °C-2.5 °C-2.6 °C-1.1 °C-1.6 °C-3.7 °C-1.4 °C
19/09/2018 12Z-1.2 °C+0.1 °C+0.5 °C-0.3 °C-1.1 °C-0.9 °C-0.7 °C
19/09/2018 06Z-1.6 °C-2.1 °C-1.5 °C-0.2 °C-0.6 °C-4.2 °C-2.5 °C
19/09/2018 00Z-2.6 °C-2.1 °C-3 °C-1.5 °C-1.8 °C-3.4 °C-2.2 °C
18/09/2018 18Z+1.2 °C+1 °C+0.8 °C+1 °C+2.1 °C-0.2 °C+1.7 °C
18/09/2018 12Z-3.1 °C-2.5 °C-2.8 °C-1.7 °C-2.3 °C-4.2 °C-2.3 °C
18/09/2018 06Z-1.8 °C-1 °C-1.6 °C-0.3 °C-1.5 °C-2.7 °C-1.3 °C
18/09/2018 00Z+2.2 °C+2.1 °C+3 °C+1.9 °C+2.6 °C+1.4 °C+2.7 °C
17/09/2018 18Z-2.8 °C-2.1 °C-1.6 °C-0.7 °C-2.2 °C-4.3 °C-3.5 °C
17/09/2018 12Z-3.2 °C-1.7 °C-1.3 °C-0.6 °C-2.4 °C-4.2 °C-3.8 °C
17/09/2018 06Z-1.2 °C-1 °C+0.6 °C+0.5 °C-1.2 °C-1.7 °C-1.5 °C
17/09/2018 00Z-1.3 °C+0.6 °C-0.5 °C+0.2 °C-1 °C-1.8 °C-0.3 °C
16/09/2018 18Z-0.7 °C+0.3 °C+0.4 °C+0.1 °C-0.3 °C-1 °C-0.1 °C
16/09/2018 12Z-3.1 °C-2.3 °C-2.5 °C-1.1 °C-2.3 °C-4.8 °C-2.9 °C
16/09/2018 06Z+1.6 °C+1.5 °C+2.5 °C+1.4 °C+1.8 °C+1.1 °C+1.8 °C
16/09/2018 00Z+3.5 °C+2.6 °C+3.3 °C+2.6 °C+4.3 °C+2.4 °C+3.8 °C
15/09/2018 18Z-1.8 °C-1.4 °C-1.2 °C-0.2 °C-1.1 °C-3.5 °C-1.6 °C
15/09/2018 12Z+0.8 °C+1.3 °C+1.7 °C+1.6 °C+1.2 °C+0.3 °C+1.1 °C
15/09/2018 06Z-2.3 °C-0.6 °C-1.5 °C-1 °C-1.2 °C-2.9 °C-2 °C
15/09/2018 00Z-2 °C-1.6 °C-0.7 °C-0.4 °C-1.2 °C-3.4 °C-2.4 °C
14/09/2018 18Z-0.1 °C+0.6 °C+1.1 °C+0.4 °C+0.4 °C-0.9 °C-0.6 °C
14/09/2018 12Z+0.6 °C+1.5 °C+1.4 °C+0.8 °C+1.3 °C-0.1 °C+1.4 °C
14/09/2018 06Z-1.4 °C-0.2 °C-0.1 °C-0.3 °C-1 °C-1.9 °C-0.8 °C
14/09/2018 00Z+0.3 °C+-0 °C+0.8 °C+1.5 °C+0.9 °C-1.6 °C-0.1 °C
13/09/2018 18Z-0.3 °C+0 °C-0.2 °C+0.3 °C+0.4 °C-1.7 °C+0.3 °C
13/09/2018 12Z+1.4 °C+0.9 °C+3 °C+2.5 °C+1.2 °C+0.2 °C+0.6 °C
13/09/2018 06Z-2.1 °C-0.8 °C-1.1 °C-0.5 °C-1.5 °C-3.6 °C-2 °C
13/09/2018 00Z+1.5 °C+1.2 °C+1.6 °C+2.2 °C+2.4 °C-0.1 °C+2.2 °C
Moyenne-0.9 °C-0.4 °C-0.2 °C+0.2 °C-0.3 °C-1.9 °C-0.6 °C

Anomalie de la température à 850hPa

Date du runParisMarseilleBordeauxBrestLilleLyonStrasbourg
20/09/2018 06Z-3.3 °C-2.8 °C-3.6 °C-3.9 °C-3.3 °C-3.2 °C-2.4 °C
20/09/2018 00Z-3.7 °C-4.3 °C-3.5 °C-2.3 °C-3.3 °C-4.5 °C-4.3 °C
19/09/2018 18Z-3 °C-3.6 °C-3.8 °C-2.5 °C-2.3 °C-3.4 °C-2.1 °C
19/09/2018 12Z-2.3 °C-1.1 °C-1.1 °C-1.6 °C-2.3 °C-1.3 °C-1.8 °C
19/09/2018 06Z-2 °C-3.8 °C-1.8 °C-0.1 °C-1.8 °C-3.8 °C-3.9 °C
19/09/2018 00Z-3.9 °C-3.4 °C-3.6 °C-3 °C-3.9 °C-3.8 °C-4.2 °C
18/09/2018 18Z+0.5 °C-0.6 °C+0 °C+0 °C+1 °C+0.1 °C+1 °C
18/09/2018 12Z-4.1 °C-3.7 °C-4.7 °C-3.4 °C-4.1 °C-4.3 °C-4 °C
18/09/2018 06Z-2.3 °C-1.9 °C-2.1 °C-1.4 °C-2.3 °C-2.4 °C-2.4 °C
18/09/2018 00Z+3 °C+0.5 °C+3.1 °C+2.4 °C+2.7 °C+2 °C+2.7 °C
17/09/2018 18Z-3.7 °C-4.1 °C-3.2 °C-2.9 °C-3.9 °C-4.1 °C-4.7 °C
17/09/2018 12Z-3.4 °C-4.3 °C-2 °C-0.3 °C-3.7 °C-4.5 °C-5.6 °C
17/09/2018 06Z-1.5 °C-2.5 °C-0.3 °C+1.2 °C-1.5 °C-2.1 °C-2.2 °C
17/09/2018 00Z-1.5 °C+0.3 °C-0.9 °C-1.3 °C-2 °C-0.7 °C-1.2 °C
16/09/2018 18Z-1.5 °C-1.3 °C-1.4 °C-1.3 °C-1.7 °C-1.2 °C-1.3 °C
16/09/2018 12Z-4.2 °C-4.2 °C-4.1 °C-2.4 °C-3.8 °C-5.1 °C-4.7 °C
16/09/2018 06Z+1.9 °C+0.2 °C+1.9 °C+1.6 °C+1.7 °C+1.1 °C+0.8 °C
16/09/2018 00Z+3.3 °C+1.1 °C+3 °C+2 °C+3.4 °C+2.5 °C+3.9 °C
15/09/2018 18Z-3.1 °C-3.1 °C-3.2 °C-2.3 °C-2.8 °C-4.1 °C-3.4 °C
15/09/2018 12Z+1.1 °C-0.6 °C+0.6 °C+1 °C+1.5 °C+0.2 °C+0.6 °C
15/09/2018 06Z-2.4 °C-2.1 °C-1.1 °C-1 °C-2.6 °C-2.6 °C-3.3 °C
15/09/2018 00Z-2 °C-3.6 °C-2.3 °C-1.4 °C-1.7 °C-3.5 °C-2.8 °C
14/09/2018 18Z+0.7 °C-1.4 °C+0.6 °C+0.3 °C+0.8 °C+0 °C-0.8 °C
14/09/2018 12Z+1.8 °C-0.2 °C+1.6 °C+2 °C+1.8 °C+1 °C+1.1 °C
14/09/2018 06Z-2.6 °C-1 °C-1 °C-1.5 °C-2.8 °C-1.8 °C-2.7 °C
14/09/2018 00Z-0.5 °C-2.2 °C-0.4 °C+0.3 °C-0.4 °C-1.7 °C-1.4 °C
13/09/2018 18Z-1 °C-1 °C-0.8 °C-0.6 °C-0.7 °C-0.9 °C-0.7 °C
13/09/2018 12Z+2 °C-0.5 °C+1.9 °C+2.9 °C+2.4 °C+0.3 °C+0.9 °C
13/09/2018 06Z-3.2 °C-1.9 °C-1.5 °C-1.7 °C-3.4 °C-3.2 °C-3.9 °C
13/09/2018 00Z+1.3 °C-0.6 °C+0.6 °C+1.3 °C+1.8 °C+0.3 °C+1.2 °C
Moyenne-1.3 °C-1.9 °C-1.1 °C-0.7 °C-1.2 °C-1.8 °C-1.7 °C

Anomalie de quantité de précipitations

Date du runParisMarseilleBordeauxBrestLilleLyonStrasbourg
20/09/2018 06Z+21.9 %+29.4 %+39.8 %-4.4 %+11.4 %+50.8 %-2.5 %
20/09/2018 00Z+84.6 %-89.3 %+9.8 %+19.7 %+91.9 %+7.1 %+26.9 %
19/09/2018 18Z+6 %-60.9 %+13.8 %-20.4 %+24 %-12.1 %+20.8 %
19/09/2018 12Z+37.1 %-11.8 %+81.4 %+38.4 %+31.1 %+54.3 %+49.2 %
19/09/2018 06Z-55.5 %-84.8 %-96.2 %-73.8 %-57 %-94.7 %-75.3 %
19/09/2018 00Z-9 %+53.9 %-8.6 %-65.3 %-32.8 %-30.6 %-21.5 %
18/09/2018 18Z-60.7 %+189.1 %-71.9 %-34.2 %-51.2 %+9.3 %-31.9 %
18/09/2018 12Z-40 %-40.6 %+54.4 %-53.1 %-48.5 %+35.5 %-25.3 %
18/09/2018 06Z-17.1 %-57.3 %-78.4 %-47.4 %+11.3 %-70.3 %-24.4 %
18/09/2018 00Z-16.7 %-41.4 %-69.2 %-5.4 %-6.6 %-73.1 %-74.1 %
17/09/2018 18Z+5.3 %-84.9 %-85.1 %-57.4 %-7.5 %-68.5 %-26.2 %
17/09/2018 12Z-68.9 %-62.7 %-63.5 %-58.5 %-63.5 %-77.7 %-55.3 %
17/09/2018 06Z-74.4 %+26 %-44.3 %-51.1 %-77.8 %-40.2 %-67 %
17/09/2018 00Z+16.8 %-67.6 %+5.1 %+9.4 %+45.9 %-40.7 %-29.6 %
16/09/2018 18Z+69.8 %+97.2 %-57.5 %-9.7 %+37.3 %+22.2 %+10.7 %
16/09/2018 12Z+15.8 %-20.9 %-44.6 %-53.6 %-3.6 %-46.6 %+1.6 %
16/09/2018 06Z-66.6 %-33.8 %-59.4 %-19.9 %-69.5 %-52.5 %-34.9 %
16/09/2018 00Z-24.5 %+46 %-10.8 %-1.2 %-53.2 %-7.9 %-52.7 %
15/09/2018 18Z+18.3 %-4.2 %-17.3 %-25.3 %-5.1 %-10 %+39.8 %
15/09/2018 12Z-45.9 %+156.4 %-64.8 %-42.1 %-74.2 %-21 %-54.8 %
15/09/2018 06Z-72.4 %-87.8 %-45.6 %-47.9 %-70.9 %-54.2 %-50.8 %
15/09/2018 00Z-17.4 %-31.1 %+1 %-47 %-45.8 %+4.6 %-14.5 %
14/09/2018 18Z-64.9 %-38.6 %-78.4 %-39.5 %-68.3 %-80.2 %-84.1 %
14/09/2018 12Z-7.3 %+113.3 %-33.4 %+3 %-22 %-11.9 %-43.8 %
14/09/2018 06Z+81.8 %+76.7 %+187.2 %+36.5 %+46.5 %+90 %+82.1 %
14/09/2018 00Z+26.3 %-38.4 %-27.8 %-66.5 %+18.4 %-2.3 %+7.6 %
13/09/2018 18Z-46.6 %-23.1 %-37 %-24.6 %-66.9 %-54.2 %-61.2 %
13/09/2018 12Z-28.6 %+23.3 %-3.5 %-25.6 %-13.5 %-17.5 %-25.8 %
13/09/2018 06Z-27.3 %-93.9 %-51.5 %-62.4 %+14.2 %-53.8 %+14.7 %
13/09/2018 00Z-21.1 %+21 %+3.7 %-23.2 %-32.6 %-4.8 %-27.9 %
Moyenne-12.7 %-4.7 %-21.8 %-28.4 %-18 %-21.7 %-21 %

Anomalie de pression

Date du runParisMarseilleBordeauxBrestLilleLyonStrasbourg
20/09/2018 06Z-4 hPa-5.9 hPa-4.3 hPa-2.1 hPa-3.3 hPa-5.2 hPa-5.4 hPa
20/09/2018 00Z+0 hPa-0.5 hPa+2.7 hPa+3.1 hPa-1.1 hPa+0.3 hPa-1.3 hPa
19/09/2018 18Z+0 hPa-0.7 hPa+1 hPa+1.1 hPa-0.4 hPa-0.4 hPa-0.9 hPa
19/09/2018 12Z-2.8 hPa-2.4 hPa-3.1 hPa-3 hPa-2.4 hPa-3 hPa-2.9 hPa
19/09/2018 06Z+8.3 hPa+3.5 hPa+5.8 hPa+9.7 hPa+9 hPa+5.5 hPa+6.6 hPa
19/09/2018 00Z+4.6 hPa+0.5 hPa+3.2 hPa+6.8 hPa+4.7 hPa+1.9 hPa+2.8 hPa
18/09/2018 18Z+3 hPa+1.8 hPa+2.2 hPa+3.2 hPa+3 hPa+2.3 hPa+2.8 hPa
18/09/2018 12Z+0.8 hPa-2.8 hPa+0.8 hPa+3.5 hPa+0.9 hPa-1.3 hPa-1.1 hPa
18/09/2018 06Z+4.7 hPa+2.6 hPa+5.2 hPa+6.2 hPa+4.4 hPa+3.7 hPa+3.7 hPa
18/09/2018 00Z+2.4 hPa+3.4 hPa+1.3 hPa+0.9 hPa+2.4 hPa+3 hPa+3.1 hPa
17/09/2018 18Z+2.3 hPa+1 hPa+2.3 hPa+4.4 hPa+2.1 hPa+1.8 hPa+1.4 hPa
17/09/2018 12Z+6.2 hPa+1.1 hPa+3.6 hPa+7.3 hPa+7.4 hPa+2.9 hPa+4.9 hPa
17/09/2018 06Z+1.7 hPa-0.6 hPa-1.2 hPa+1.5 hPa+3.2 hPa-0.3 hPa+1.1 hPa
17/09/2018 00Z+0.6 hPa-0.8 hPa+1.4 hPa+1.3 hPa+0.2 hPa+0.3 hPa+0.1 hPa
16/09/2018 18Z+1.2 hPa-0.2 hPa+0.5 hPa+2.3 hPa+2 hPa+0.3 hPa+0.6 hPa
16/09/2018 12Z+1.3 hPa-1.6 hPa+1.2 hPa+3.9 hPa+1.3 hPa+0.1 hPa-0.2 hPa
16/09/2018 06Z+2.1 hPa+1.4 hPa+0.2 hPa+2.1 hPa+3.1 hPa+1.3 hPa+1.8 hPa
16/09/2018 00Z+0.6 hPa+2.8 hPa-0.5 hPa-1.7 hPa+0.5 hPa+2.1 hPa+1.9 hPa
15/09/2018 18Z-0.2 hPa-2.9 hPa+0.5 hPa+1.7 hPa-0.2 hPa-1.3 hPa-1.6 hPa
15/09/2018 12Z+1.8 hPa-0.7 hPa-1.4 hPa+0.5 hPa+4 hPa-0.2 hPa+1.8 hPa
15/09/2018 06Z+6.2 hPa+1.9 hPa+3.6 hPa+8 hPa+6.5 hPa+3.5 hPa+4.5 hPa
15/09/2018 00Z-0.3 hPa-2.4 hPa-0.3 hPa+1.3 hPa-0.1 hPa-1.4 hPa-1.2 hPa
14/09/2018 18Z+4.9 hPa+1.9 hPa+1.3 hPa+4.8 hPa+6.6 hPa+2.4 hPa+4.8 hPa
14/09/2018 12Z+4.1 hPa+2.1 hPa+0.6 hPa+2.3 hPa+5.8 hPa+2.6 hPa+4.5 hPa
14/09/2018 06Z-7.3 hPa-5.9 hPa-6.2 hPa-7.7 hPa-7 hPa-6.4 hPa-6.6 hPa
14/09/2018 00Z+1.7 hPa+1.3 hPa+1.8 hPa+3.1 hPa+1.5 hPa+1.8 hPa+1.1 hPa
13/09/2018 18Z+4.2 hPa+1.4 hPa+2.4 hPa+5.1 hPa+4.8 hPa+2.2 hPa+3.1 hPa
13/09/2018 12Z-3.3 hPa-2.3 hPa-4.7 hPa-4.2 hPa-2.4 hPa-2.7 hPa-2.4 hPa
13/09/2018 06Z+3.5 hPa+1.3 hPa+3.2 hPa+5.4 hPa+2.7 hPa+2.8 hPa+2.1 hPa
13/09/2018 00Z-1.6 hPa-2.1 hPa-2.2 hPa-2.2 hPa-1 hPa-2.1 hPa-1.9 hPa
Moyenne+1.6 hPa-0.1 hPa+0.7 hPa+2.3 hPa+1.9 hPa+0.6 hPa+0.9 hPa

Cartes d'anomalie pour le dernier run de CFS

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Précisions
Les calculs d'anomalies sont réalisés à partir des données de la période 1982-2010. Le modèle Coupled Forecast System (CFSv2) est donc un modèle saisonnier qui est lancé une 4 tous les jours avec les données de réanalyse du NCEP. Les runs ont environ 1 jour de retard puisque le temps de calcul du modèle est très long.

 
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