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 • Modèle CFS - Coupled Forecast System

Tendances saisonnières du CFS (Coupled Forecast System)
pour Août 2019

Août 2019 - Septembre 2019 - Octobre 2019 - Novembre 2019 - Décembre 2019 - Janvier 2020


Anomalie de la température à 2m

Date du runParisMarseilleBordeauxBrestLilleLyonStrasbourg
15/07/2019 06Z-1.5 °C-1.3 °C+0.8 °C+1.4 °C-0.9 °C-2.8 °C-1.2 °C
15/07/2019 00Z+0.6 °C-0.1 °C+2.6 °C+2.8 °C+1.1 °C-1.5 °C+0.1 °C
14/07/2019 18Z-1.4 °C-0.2 °C-0.4 °C+1.7 °C-0.2 °C-3 °C-0.8 °C
14/07/2019 12Z-2 °C-0.7 °C-0.2 °C+1.9 °C-1.4 °C-3.6 °C-2.5 °C
14/07/2019 06Z-0.3 °C+1 °C+1 °C+2.1 °C+0.3 °C-1.2 °C+0.8 °C
14/07/2019 00Z-0.8 °C-0.1 °C-0.1 °C+1.6 °C+0.1 °C-2.7 °C-0.1 °C
13/07/2019 18Z-1 °C-0.5 °C+0.4 °C+1.9 °C-0.3 °C-3.1 °C-1.7 °C
13/07/2019 12Z-1 °C-0.4 °C+0 °C+1.8 °C-0.1 °C-2.8 °C-0.6 °C
13/07/2019 06Z-1.5 °C-0.6 °C-0.9 °C+1.2 °C-0.6 °C-2.7 °C-0.9 °C
13/07/2019 00Z+1.9 °C+1 °C+4.1 °C+4.1 °C+1.9 °C+-0 °C+1.8 °C
12/07/2019 18Z-3.2 °C-1.6 °C-1.5 °C+0.4 °C-2.3 °C-5.2 °C-3.3 °C
12/07/2019 12Z+0.3 °C+2.3 °C+3.1 °C+2.4 °C+0.7 °C-0.7 °C+0.5 °C
12/07/2019 06Z-1 °C-0.1 °C+0.4 °C+1.8 °C-0.2 °C-2.8 °C-0.6 °C
12/07/2019 00Z-0.9 °C-0.4 °C-0.1 °C+1.9 °C+0.3 °C-3.3 °C-0.5 °C
11/07/2019 18Z-1.1 °C+0.4 °C+1.3 °C+1.4 °C-0.5 °C-1.8 °C-0.6 °C
11/07/2019 12Z+0.2 °C-0.6 °C+0.8 °C+2.6 °C+1.2 °C-2.6 °C-0.3 °C
11/07/2019 06Z-0.2 °C+1.4 °C+1.7 °C+2.5 °C+0.6 °C-1.5 °C+0 °C
11/07/2019 00Z+1.2 °C+0.9 °C+3.1 °C+3.6 °C+1.8 °C-0.5 °C+0.8 °C
10/07/2019 18Z-2.4 °C-1.3 °C-2.1 °C+0.7 °C-1.4 °C-4.4 °C-1.9 °C
10/07/2019 12Z+2.1 °C+1 °C+2.7 °C+3.8 °C+3.1 °C-0.6 °C+1.9 °C
10/07/2019 06Z+1.6 °C+0.4 °C+2.6 °C+3.7 °C+2.3 °C-0.4 °C+1.8 °C
10/07/2019 00Z-0.8 °C-1.2 °C-0.4 °C+1.9 °C+0.6 °C-3.2 °C-0.7 °C
09/07/2019 18Z+-0 °C+0.7 °C+2.8 °C+2.7 °C+0.5 °C-1.5 °C-0.7 °C
09/07/2019 12Z+0.6 °C+0.5 °C+0.7 °C+2.6 °C+1.7 °C-1.7 °C+0.5 °C
09/07/2019 06Z-0.9 °C+1.2 °C-0.2 °C+1.5 °C+0.1 °C-1.8 °C+0.3 °C
09/07/2019 00Z+1.3 °C+0.9 °C+2.1 °C+3.1 °C+2.1 °C-0.7 °C+1.2 °C
08/07/2019 18Z+0.1 °C+0.8 °C+1.7 °C+2.5 °C+0.8 °C-1.4 °C+0.1 °C
08/07/2019 12Z+0.2 °C+0.8 °C+2.2 °C+2.5 °C+0.6 °C-1 °C+0.1 °C
08/07/2019 06Z-1 °C-0.7 °C-0.1 °C+2.3 °C-0.1 °C-3.3 °C-2.2 °C
08/07/2019 00Z+0 °C-0.1 °C+0.8 °C+2.3 °C+1.1 °C-2.3 °C-0.3 °C
Moyenne-0.4 °C+0.1 °C+1 °C+2.2 °C+0.4 °C-2.1 °C-0.3 °C

Anomalie de la température à 850hPa

Date du runParisMarseilleBordeauxBrestLilleLyonStrasbourg
15/07/2019 06Z-0.9 °C-2.2 °C+0.4 °C-0.6 °C-1 °C-1.3 °C-1.2 °C
15/07/2019 00Z+1.9 °C-1.4 °C+2 °C+2.3 °C+1.9 °C+0.1 °C+0.1 °C
14/07/2019 18Z-0.8 °C-1.5 °C-1.3 °C-1 °C-0.4 °C-1.3 °C-0.8 °C
14/07/2019 12Z-1.2 °C-2.2 °C-1 °C-0.1 °C-1.1 °C-1.9 °C-2.5 °C
14/07/2019 06Z+0.4 °C+0.2 °C+0.5 °C+0.4 °C+0.3 °C+0.6 °C+0.4 °C
14/07/2019 00Z-0.4 °C-1.8 °C-0.8 °C-0.9 °C-0.1 °C-1.3 °C-0.2 °C
13/07/2019 18Z-0.5 °C-2.1 °C-0.6 °C+0.7 °C-0.5 °C-1.5 °C-1.7 °C
13/07/2019 12Z-0.5 °C-1.9 °C-0.7 °C-0.3 °C-0.2 °C-1.2 °C-0.6 °C
13/07/2019 06Z-0.9 °C-1.3 °C-1.1 °C-0.8 °C-0.9 °C-1.1 °C-0.9 °C
13/07/2019 00Z+3.2 °C-0.2 °C+3.9 °C+3.8 °C+2.7 °C+2 °C+2.1 °C
12/07/2019 18Z-3.3 °C-3.8 °C-3.2 °C-2.6 °C-2.8 °C-4.1 °C-3.8 °C
12/07/2019 12Z+1.5 °C+1.2 °C+2.8 °C+1.3 °C+1.2 °C+1.5 °C+0.6 °C
12/07/2019 06Z-0.5 °C-1.7 °C-0.4 °C-0.1 °C-0.5 °C-1.3 °C-1 °C
12/07/2019 00Z-0.6 °C-2.2 °C-1.4 °C-0.6 °C+-0 °C-1.7 °C-0.9 °C
11/07/2019 18Z-0.6 °C-0.9 °C+0.2 °C-0.1 °C-0.9 °C-0.1 °C-0.8 °C
11/07/2019 12Z+0.7 °C-2.2 °C-0.3 °C+0.8 °C+1.3 °C-1.1 °C-0.1 °C
11/07/2019 06Z+1 °C-0.3 °C+1.3 °C+1.4 °C+1 °C+0.1 °C+0.2 °C
11/07/2019 00Z+2.1 °C-0.2 °C+2.9 °C+2.5 °C+2.2 °C+1.4 °C+1 °C
10/07/2019 18Z-2.2 °C-3.6 °C-3.4 °C-2.4 °C-1.6 °C-3.2 °C-2.3 °C
10/07/2019 12Z+2.8 °C-0.9 °C+1.4 °C+2.1 °C+3.5 °C+1.3 °C+2.4 °C
10/07/2019 06Z+3.1 °C-1.2 °C+2 °C+2.7 °C+3.4 °C+1.2 °C+1.9 °C
10/07/2019 00Z+0.1 °C-2.1 °C-1.2 °C-0.2 °C+0.9 °C-1.6 °C-0.6 °C
09/07/2019 18Z+0.8 °C-0.8 °C+1.7 °C+2.3 °C+0.5 °C+0.4 °C-0.6 °C
09/07/2019 12Z+1.2 °C-1.3 °C-0.1 °C+0.8 °C+1.6 °C-0.3 °C+0.5 °C
09/07/2019 06Z-0.3 °C-0.1 °C-0.6 °C-0.5 °C+0 °C+0.1 °C+0.2 °C
09/07/2019 00Z+1.6 °C-0.1 °C+1.5 °C+1.1 °C+1.7 °C+1.1 °C+1.4 °C
08/07/2019 18Z+0.6 °C-0.1 °C+1.2 °C+0.6 °C+0.6 °C+0.4 °C-0.1 °C
08/07/2019 12Z+0.9 °C-0.4 °C+1 °C+0.4 °C+0.8 °C+0.8 °C+0.4 °C
08/07/2019 06Z+0.4 °C-2.2 °C+-0 °C+1.7 °C+0.7 °C-1.5 °C-1.8 °C
08/07/2019 00Z+0.5 °C-1.9 °C-0.2 °C+0.2 °C+1.1 °C-0.9 °C-0.2 °C
Moyenne+0.3 °C-1.3 °C+0.2 °C+0.5 °C+0.5 °C-0.5 °C-0.3 °C

Anomalie de quantité de précipitations

Date du runParisMarseilleBordeauxBrestLilleLyonStrasbourg
15/07/2019 06Z+2.4 %+45.6 %+25.1 %-64.5 %-48.4 %+182.9 %+39.2 %
15/07/2019 00Z-25.5 %-87.8 %-60.8 %-51.9 %-43.8 %-53.5 %-46 %
14/07/2019 18Z+70.6 %+409.1 %+161.4 %+87.5 %+21.3 %+209 %+49.8 %
14/07/2019 12Z-40.9 %+109.9 %+22.9 %-21.2 %-0.2 %+62.9 %+20.8 %
14/07/2019 06Z+47.6 %+7.9 %+0.9 %+146.4 %+19 %+43.2 %-23.8 %
14/07/2019 00Z+16 %+240.8 %+44.2 %+16.5 %-8 %+79.9 %+19.1 %
13/07/2019 18Z-40.5 %-88.2 %-80.1 %-74.1 %-44.3 %-51.4 %-33.5 %
13/07/2019 12Z+12.4 %+220.8 %+98 %+37.2 %+21.2 %+198.6 %+10.9 %
13/07/2019 06Z+54.6 %+76.6 %+202.8 %-7 %-25.4 %+75.4 %+19.8 %
13/07/2019 00Z+26.8 %-16.1 %+52.9 %+0.2 %-9.9 %+43.1 %-50.2 %
12/07/2019 18Z-3.9 %-39.9 %-30.4 %-19.2 %-1.4 %-3.7 %-9.5 %
12/07/2019 12Z+100.9 %-12.7 %-12.7 %+70.4 %-9.7 %+75.9 %-22.5 %
12/07/2019 06Z-40.2 %+138.8 %-25.2 %-28.6 %-36.3 %+66 %-15.6 %
12/07/2019 00Z+90.5 %+344.7 %+163.3 %+48.5 %+24.4 %+31.6 %-36 %
11/07/2019 18Z-50.4 %-30 %-72.6 %-15.4 %-52.6 %+8.6 %-41.6 %
11/07/2019 12Z+76 %+4 %+34.3 %+24.1 %+22.3 %+32.6 %-10.3 %
11/07/2019 06Z+78.6 %-96.2 %-54.2 %-63.3 %+38.1 %-37.5 %+13.6 %
11/07/2019 00Z+20.5 %-95.8 %+6.8 %-61.5 %-30.9 %-37.7 %-79.7 %
10/07/2019 18Z+50 %-7.1 %+26.6 %+42 %+52.5 %+75.5 %+53.3 %
10/07/2019 12Z+41 %+41.2 %+184.2 %-54.6 %-12.8 %+77.2 %-49.2 %
10/07/2019 06Z+67.8 %+29.4 %+38.1 %-48.5 %-10.3 %+80.4 %-19.6 %
10/07/2019 00Z+99.3 %+255.6 %+16.4 %+6.3 %+0 %-1.7 %-5.9 %
09/07/2019 18Z-58.6 %-0.7 %-48.7 %-44.3 %-87.5 %-17.8 %-76.1 %
09/07/2019 12Z+40.8 %-23 %+22.8 %-57.4 %-53.6 %+21.3 %-17.9 %
09/07/2019 06Z+36.7 %-83.6 %+2.9 %+69.8 %-22.4 %+57.3 %+0.2 %
09/07/2019 00Z+62.2 %+56.5 %+161.6 %+0.9 %-47.8 %+141.7 %+9.2 %
08/07/2019 18Z+19.8 %-15.6 %-1.6 %+7.5 %-4.8 %-7.5 %-40.8 %
08/07/2019 12Z+25.1 %+139.3 %+36.9 %-40.1 %-64.9 %+12.3 %-28.7 %
08/07/2019 06Z-10.5 %+78.6 %+93.6 %-57.7 %-42.5 %+89 %-10.2 %
08/07/2019 00Z+22.9 %+66.5 %+13.5 %-11.1 %-30.6 %+88.4 %+17.7 %
Moyenne+26.4 %+55.6 %+34.1 %-5.4 %-16.3 %+51.4 %-12.1 %

Anomalie de pression

Date du runParisMarseilleBordeauxBrestLilleLyonStrasbourg
15/07/2019 06Z+0.8 hPa+1.7 hPa-0.7 hPa+0.9 hPa+1.1 hPa+0.8 hPa+0.8 hPa
15/07/2019 00Z+4.5 hPa+3.5 hPa+1.7 hPa+3.6 hPa+5.4 hPa+3.7 hPa+4.9 hPa
14/07/2019 18Z-2.7 hPa-2.4 hPa-2.8 hPa-3.3 hPa-2.5 hPa-2.5 hPa-2.4 hPa
14/07/2019 12Z+0 hPa-1 hPa-1.9 hPa-0.7 hPa+0.6 hPa-0.9 hPa-0.2 hPa
14/07/2019 06Z-1.1 hPa+0.6 hPa-1 hPa-2.3 hPa-1.3 hPa+0.2 hPa-0.1 hPa
14/07/2019 00Z-1.7 hPa-0.9 hPa-1.7 hPa-2.1 hPa-2 hPa-1 hPa-1.2 hPa
13/07/2019 18Z+2.4 hPa+1 hPa+1.1 hPa+3 hPa+2.4 hPa+1.5 hPa+2.1 hPa
13/07/2019 12Z-0.9 hPa-0.1 hPa-1.7 hPa-1.5 hPa-0.3 hPa-0.7 hPa-0.5 hPa
13/07/2019 06Z+0.1 hPa-0.6 hPa-0.9 hPa-0.2 hPa+0.7 hPa-0.6 hPa-0.1 hPa
13/07/2019 00Z-0.6 hPa+0.8 hPa-3.3 hPa-2.1 hPa+0.7 hPa-0.3 hPa+0.3 hPa
12/07/2019 18Z+0.6 hPa+0.3 hPa+0.2 hPa+1.1 hPa-0.1 hPa+0.7 hPa+0.4 hPa
12/07/2019 12Z+0.1 hPa+0.2 hPa-1.2 hPa-1 hPa+0.3 hPa+0.4 hPa+0.5 hPa
12/07/2019 06Z+2.9 hPa+2.4 hPa+2.3 hPa+2.7 hPa+2.5 hPa+2.9 hPa+2.9 hPa
12/07/2019 00Z-2.5 hPa-1.1 hPa-2.5 hPa-2.8 hPa-2.7 hPa-1.5 hPa-1.5 hPa
11/07/2019 18Z+2.7 hPa+2.2 hPa+1.1 hPa+2.2 hPa+2.7 hPa+2.2 hPa+2.8 hPa
11/07/2019 12Z+2.4 hPa+2.3 hPa+1.7 hPa+1.4 hPa+2.3 hPa+2.6 hPa+3 hPa
11/07/2019 06Z+3 hPa+1.1 hPa+1.6 hPa+2.9 hPa+3.3 hPa+2 hPa+2.4 hPa
11/07/2019 00Z+1.4 hPa+1.8 hPa-0.6 hPa+0.2 hPa+1.8 hPa+1.5 hPa+1.9 hPa
10/07/2019 18Z-3.4 hPa-2 hPa-1.2 hPa-3.1 hPa-4.7 hPa-2.1 hPa-3.3 hPa
10/07/2019 12Z+0.5 hPa+1.5 hPa-1.8 hPa-0.1 hPa+1.7 hPa+0.7 hPa+1.5 hPa
10/07/2019 06Z+3.3 hPa+3.7 hPa+0.9 hPa+2.5 hPa+4.3 hPa+3.1 hPa+3.8 hPa
10/07/2019 00Z-1.4 hPa-1.5 hPa-1.8 hPa-1.7 hPa-1.3 hPa-1.4 hPa-1.3 hPa
09/07/2019 18Z+5.4 hPa+3.5 hPa+1.7 hPa+4.8 hPa+6.5 hPa+3.6 hPa+5.1 hPa
09/07/2019 12Z+1.8 hPa+1.5 hPa+1 hPa+1.6 hPa+1.9 hPa+1.7 hPa+2 hPa
09/07/2019 06Z-0.3 hPa+0.3 hPa-0.2 hPa-1.4 hPa-1 hPa+0.4 hPa+0.2 hPa
09/07/2019 00Z+0.8 hPa+1.1 hPa-0.3 hPa+0.2 hPa+1.2 hPa+1.1 hPa+1.3 hPa
08/07/2019 18Z+1.9 hPa+1.9 hPa+0.2 hPa+0.7 hPa+1.7 hPa+1.9 hPa+2.2 hPa
08/07/2019 12Z+1.5 hPa+1.3 hPa-1.3 hPa+1.1 hPa+2.7 hPa+0.8 hPa+1.8 hPa
08/07/2019 06Z+2.2 hPa+1.1 hPa+0.8 hPa+2 hPa+2.6 hPa+1.3 hPa+2.4 hPa
08/07/2019 00Z+0.7 hPa+0.2 hPa-0.7 hPa+0.5 hPa+1.5 hPa+0.1 hPa+0.7 hPa
Moyenne+0.8 hPa+0.8 hPa-0.4 hPa+0.3 hPa+1.1 hPa+0.7 hPa+1.1 hPa

Cartes d'anomalie pour le dernier run de CFS

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Précisions
Les calculs d'anomalies sont réalisés à partir des données de la période 1982-2010. Le modèle Coupled Forecast System (CFSv2) est donc un modèle saisonnier qui est lancé une 4 tous les jours avec les données de réanalyse du NCEP. Les runs ont environ 1 jour de retard puisque le temps de calcul du modèle est très long.

 
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